At Oslo Business Forum 2024, Peter shared his insights on navigating this era of "never normal," offering strategies for fostering innovation, embracing technological disruption, and staying ahead of the curve.
The Transition from Analog to Digital
Peter has long studied the forces that drive businesses to transform and thrive in the face of disruption. In his work, he has explored the limits of the digital world and examined when technology stops being special and starts becoming the norm. What he's discovered is that the time is now.
Peter Hinssen, Authority on Radical Innovation, Author and Lecturer
"When does technology stop being special and start becoming the norm?"
Leading thinkers on technological revolution have noted that we see the same patterns occur over and over again with advancements. The key difference, however, is that the patterns used to take 20-30 years to materialize—now they're moving faster and faster. Just consider the number of things that have disrupted our businesses in the past five years.
Peter is convinced that we're all in for more seismic shocks, and it won't be just one thing; it will be a combination of things: technological shock, environmental shock, ecological shock, social shock, and geopolitical shock. Polycrisis, the simultaneous occurrence of several catastrophic events, was the word of the year in the UK last year. This underscores the distress that many leaders are presently feeling.
But perhaps the shocks we're experiencing aren't to be feared. Maybe they're something to be leveraged as we construct the new normal.
The Never Normal
In today's world, there is no such thing as "normal" anymore. Peter introduced the concept of the "never normal," where businesses can no longer hope for a return to stability. Instead, leaders must embrace a reality characterized by constant change that is:
Nonlinear: Businesses must learn to think and act beyond traditional linear approaches. Companies like Amazon have succeeded by operating nonlinearly—constantly adapting to the unpredictable forces at play.
Superfluid: The pandemic and the rise of remote work showed that agility and adaptability are now core requirements for success. Intelligence in this era is defined by the ability to respond quickly to change.
Hyperconnected: We live in a hyperconnected world where disruptions in one part of the globe can send ripples across industries. Being connected is essential, but so is preparing for the unexpected shifts that come with it.
Ultra-Speed: The pace of change is accelerating. Organizations must innovate quickly and seize opportunities as they arise or risk being left behind.
"This is the world we live in. We can't hope that it's magically going to go back to stability."
The Criticality of Time
Time is now the most critical resource in a fast-paced, unpredictable business environment. The traditional company lifecycle—startup, growth, peak, and decline—no longer applies. In the "never normal," businesses must learn to innovate preemptively. You cannot wait for a crisis to inspire a change.
Peter emphasized that organizations must act when they can, not when they must. In a world where technology evolves rapidly, and the window for action closes quickly, leaders have to make bold decisions early without waiting for all the data to be clear.
This means focusing not just on the present or near future but also on the long-term horizon. The key question is: How much time is your company spending on today versus the day after tomorrow? To thrive, companies need to invest more time in long-term value creation rather than getting stuck in the routine tasks of today.
The Hourglass Model
In his book The Phoenix and The Unicorn, Peter shows how organizations can reinvent themselves and emerge stronger. His research revealed that all Phoenix organizations have one thing in common: they have a vision for the day after tomorrow and a way to act on the opportunity.
In the Hourglass Model, the top of the hourglass represents vision, and the bottom represents execution. At the top, you need people who see things differently. At the bottom, you need soldiers who are trained to execute.
Peter encouraged leaders to look around their companies and ask, "How many people here are comfortable doing things they've never done before?" Chances are, not enough. Most organizations are 99% made up of people who are "knowers"—they do what they know how to do. The other 1% don't know what to do, and these are the "learners" or innovators.
"Don't confuse surviving with thriving. Be bold on vision and flexible on details."
Every business needs more people willing to admit that they don't know what to do and are passionate about learning and innovating. Unfortunately, in most organizations, the 1% don't spend all their energy innovating—they spend all their energy fighting the 99%.
Peter left leaders at Oslo Business Forum with these famous words from Maya Angelou: "If you're always trying to be normal, you will never know how truly amazing you can be."
Key Points
- Peter Hinssen is an author and leader in radical innovation who stands out as a key voice on how businesses can survive and grow in times of major shifts. His advice helps companies reinvent themselves and emerge stronger.
- Businesses today must accept that change is constant and unpredictable. Success depends on nonlinear thinking, adaptability, and speed in a hyperconnected world.
- Leaders must prioritize innovation and take action when they can rather than wait for a crisis. The focus should be on long-term value creation, not just immediate wins.
- The Hourglass Model provides a framework for creating a vision for the day after tomorrow and a way to act on the opportunity.
- Organizations need both visionary thinkers and skilled executors. Encourage more "learners" willing to experiment and innovate rather than relying solely on "knowers" who do what they've always done.
Questions to Consider
- How much time do you spend focused on today versus the day after tomorrow? Are you investing enough in long-term value creation?
- Are you making decisions proactively or waiting for crises to force your hand? How can you create a culture that embraces preemptive innovation?
- Are you preparing your organization for the "never normal" by embracing adaptability, nonlinear thinking, speed, and hyper-connectivity?
- Does your organization have enough learners willing to challenge the status quo, or is it dominated by knowers unwilling to change?
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